Noah Feldman

  • Aired:  05/21/13
  •  | Views: 6,376

Dr. Noah Feldman defines "Cool War" and explains why America should be afraid of China as a fast-rising, interdependent global superpower. (6:13)

>> WELCOME BACK, EVERYBODY.

MY GUEST TONIGHT IS HARVARD

PROFESSOR.

HIS NEW BOOK IS CALLED "COOL

WAR."

IT'S LIKE THE COLD WAR, BUT

EVERYONE IS WEARING SKINNY

JEANS.

PLEASE WELCOME NOAH FELDMAN.

[CHEERING AND APPLAUSE]

HEY, NICE TO SEE YOU.

THANKS FOR COMING BACK,

DR. FELDMAN.

>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.

>> Stephen: NOW, FOR THE

PEOPLE WHO MAY NOT REMEMBER THE

LAST TIME YOU WERE HERE, ABOUT

FIVE YEARS AGO, LET'S SAY,

THANKS FOR COMING BACK.

YOU'RE THE BEEMISPROFESSOR OF

INTERNATIONAL LAW, A HARVARD

RHODES SCHOLAR.

MUST HAVE SOME ELASTIC IN YOUR

OLD SMARTY PANTS OVER THERE,

MAYBE AN ESCALATOR IN YOUR IVORY

TOWER.

ALL RIGHT, YOUR NEW BOOK IS

CALLED "THE COOL WAR: THE FUTURE

OF GLOBAL COMPETITION."

WHAT'S THE COOL WAR?

WE HAD A COLD WAR, WE KICKED AS,

WE TOOK NAME, WE WON IT.

WHAT'S THE COOL WAR?

>> IN A COLD WAR, YOU CAN'T

ATTACK YOUR ENEMY BECAUSE YOU'RE

AFRAID YOU'LL EACH BLOW EACH

OTHER.

IN A COOL WAR, YOU NEED YOUR

ENEMY.

YOU'RE COMPLETELY

INTERDEPENDENT.

WE NEED CHINA TO KEEP LENDING US

MONEY.

>> SO CHINA IS THE ENEMY IN THE

COOL WAR?

>> IT IS.

THEY NEED US AS MUCH TO KEEP ON

BUYING THEIR PRODUCTS SOME WE'RE

TOTALLY INTERDEPENDENT.

AT THE SAME TIME, THEY ARE

RISING FAST, AND THAT WOULD LIKE

TO BE A GLOBAL SUPERPOWER, AND

WE'RE THE ONLY GLOBAL

SUPERPOWER, AND WE DO NOT WANT

SOMEBODY ELSE TO JOIN US AT THE

TOP.

THAT'S A RECIPE FOR CONFLICT.

>> Stephen: AFTER I SAW THOSE

2008 GAMES IN BEIJING, SCARED

THE...

[LAUGHTER]

...THE HOY SIN SAUCE OUT OF ME.

SHOULD I BE SCARED OF CHINA?

>> YES, YOU SHOULD BE SCARED.

I'M SCARED.

>> Stephen: YOU'RE SCARED OF

CHINA?

>> I AM SCARED.

>> Stephen: WHAT SCARES YOU?

WHAT ARE THEY GOING TO DO TO US?

>> WHAT SCARES ME IS THEY WOULD

VERY CREDIBLY LIKE TO BECOME THE

MOST IMPORTANT POWER IN ASIA,

HALF THE WORLD'S POPULATION.

>>

>> Stephen: HOW ARE THEY NOT?

>> WE'RE STILL THE MOST

IMPORTANT POWER IN ASIA.

>> Stephen: OH, WOW.

ONE FOR US.

I DIDN'T KNOW THAT.

I LIKE THAT.

>> WE'RE STILL THE ONE WHO HAVE

THE AIRCRAFT CARRIERS.

WE ORGANIZE REGIONAL SECURITY,

BUT THEY WOULD LIKE THE CHANGE

ALL THIS.

THE WAY TO DO THAT IS KEEP ON

GROWING AND GROW THEIR MILITARY

AT 10% A YEAR, WHICH THEY'VE

BEEN DOING, AND TO WAIT UNTIL A

DAY COMES WHEN THEY SAY, GEE, WE

WOULD LIKE TAIWAN TO BE PART OF

CHINA AND WE SAY, OKAY, WHAT ARE

WE GOING TO DO ABOUT THAT?

>> Stephen: WHAT DO WE SAY

NOW?

NOW WE SAY, WE'D RATHER NOT TALK

ABOUT IT, RIGHT?

>> YEAH.

WE HAVE WHAT WE CALL A POSSE OF

STRATEGIC AMBIGUITY.

WE HAVEN'T SAID WE ARE GOING TO

WAR.

WE HAVEN'T SAID WE WON'T GO TO

WAR.

THE IDEA IS THAT WILL STOP CHINA

FROM TRYING TO TAKE OVER TAIWAN.

SO FAR IT'S WORKED.

>> Stephen: OKAY.

>> SO FOR WHAT THAT'S WORTH, IT

HASN'T HAPPENED.

THE QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL

THAT REALISTICALLY LAST?

>> Stephen: HOW LONG WILL THAT

REALISTICALLY LAST?

THAT WAS ACTUALLY MY NEXT

QUESTION.

>> I THINK IT WILL LAST UNTIL

CHINA'S MILITARY...

>> Stephen: GIVE ME A DID A,

DADDY-O.

GROW A PAIR.

WHAT DATE DOES IT END?

30 YEARS, HOW LONG?

>> IF WE CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE

AGAINST CHINA, IT MAY NEVER

HAPPEN.

WE'RE TRYING TO STOP THAT FROM

HAPPENING.

>> Stephen: WHAT IS THIS

STRUGGLE.

YOU SAY IT'S CODEPENDENCE.

WE KNOW THEY'RE OUR BIG TRADING

PARTNER.

WHAT DO WE NEED FOR THEM?

>> WE NEED THEM TO LOAN US

MONEY.

THEY OWN 8% OF OUR NATIONAL

DEBT, WHICH IS MORE THAN ANYBODY

IN THE U.S.

>> Stephen: BRAZIL OWNS A TON

OF OUR DEBT.

ENGLAND OWNS A TON OF OUR DEBT.

>> NOT EVEN CLOSE.

>> Stephen: I'M GOING TO CALL

BULL [BLEEPED] ON THAT.

I THINK BRAZIL OWNS A BUNCH TOO.

CAN SOMEONE CHECK TO SEE IF I'M

RIGHT?

THEY SAID I'M RIGHT.

[LAUGHTER]

WAIT A SECOND.

NO, NO, LISTEN, LISTEN, YOU'RE

THE HARVARD GUY, I'LL GIVE YOU

THAT ONE.

LET ME ASK YOU THIS, AS A KID,

AND HOWL ARE YOU?

>> 43.

>> Stephen: YEAH, AS A KID,

GROWING UP, WE'RE NEVER GOING TO

GET OFF OUR DEPENDENCE ON

FOREIGN OIL, RIGHT, WE'LL BE

SLAVES AND CHAINS.

THEY'RE GOING TO OWN OUR WOMEN

AND THEIR HAREMS IN SAUDI ARABIA

BECAUSE WE'LL NEED THEIR OIL.

NOW WE'RE FRACKING NORTH DAKOTA.

WE GOT MORE OIL THAN WE KNOW

WHAT TO DO WITH IN THE FUTURE.

THERE'S PLENTY OF OIL OUT THERE.

WE CAN SELL THIS TO OTHER

PEOPLE.

IS THERE ANYWAY WE CAN FRACK OUR

ECONOMY AND NO LONGER BE

DEPENDENT ON THE CHINESE AND WE

FLIP THE SCRIPT AND CHINA IS

DEPENDENT UPON US FOR SALES, BUT

WE DON'T NEED THEIR CASH, GAME

OVER.

>> IT'S A GREAT PLAN.

>> Stephen: THANK YOU.

[CHEERING AND APPLAUSE]

>> BUT WHAT I THINK IS THAT IN

THE REAL WORLD THAT WOULD MEAN

WE WOULD BORROW EVEN MORE OF OUR

OWN MONEY.

WE WOULD OWN EVEN MORE OF OUR

OWN DEBT.

>> Stephen: WHO WINS?

LOOK INTO YOUR CRYSTAL BALL.

WHO WINS THIS ONE?

>> WE DON'T KNOW WHO WINS.

>> Stephen: AMERICA WINS.

THE ANSWER IS AMERICA WINS.

HOW DO WE WIN?

IF THAT'S NOT YOUR ANSWER, THEN

THINK ABOUT THAT ONE.

HOW DO WE WIN IT?

>> THE WAY WE WIN AND THE WAY

EVERYONE COULD REALLY WIN WOULD

BE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FACT

THAT WE'RE MUTUALLY

INTERDEPENDENT AND TRY TO USE

THE LEVERAGE OF THE FACT THAT

EVERYONE WOULD LOSE IN A WAR TO

TRY TO STOP THEM FROM FIGHTING

US AND STOP US FROM FIGHTING

THEM.

>> Stephen: THAT'S WHAT THE

FRENCH SAID TO THE NAZIS OVER

VICHY.

THEY SAID, "WE WILL COOPERATE

WITH YOU."

>> THE MAJOR DIFFERENCE IS THAT

CHINA IS KNOTTS EASY GERMANY --

NAZI GERMANY.

CHINA IS AUTHORITARIAN.

IT'S NOT A DICTATORSHIP.

THEY CHANGE THEIR LEADERSHIP

EVERY TEN YEARS.

>> THEY'RE COMMIES.

>> THEY WERE ONCE COMMIES.

>> Stephen: YOU'RE BUYING

THAT?

YOU SWALLOWED THAT WHOLE, WE'RE

NOT COMMIES THING.

>> THEY'RE DEFINITELY A RULING

PARTY.

>> Stephen: IT'S CALLED THE

COMMUNIST PARTY.

>> BUT THEY'VE ADMITTED

CAPITALISTS TO MEMBERSHIP.

>> THEY'RE JUST CAPITALISTS

PERIOD.

>> THEY SEEM TO BE ALL IN ON THE

CAPITALISM FRONT.

>> ALL RIGHT.

LISTEN, WILL YOU COME BACK IF WE

GET TO WAR WITH CHINA?

>> THAT WOULD BE THE LEAST OF

OUR PROBLEMS.

I'LL BE HERE.

>> Stephen: THANK YOU.

THANK YOU SO MUCH.

NOAH FELDMAN.

THE BOOK IS "THE COOL WAR."

WE'LL BE RIGHT BACK.

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