"Razor Tight" Presidential Election

  • Aired:  11/05/12
  •  | Views: 52,406

Election commentators botch a metaphor, and New York Times analyst Nate Silver says that Barack Obama has an 86.3% chance of winning. (3:48)

>> Stephen: WELCOME BACK, EVERYBODY.

THANK YOU SO MUCH.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

>> Stephen: FOLKS, WE ARE 12 MINUTES CLOSER TO ELECTION DAY.

AND AS OF 11:43100 ZULU TIME THERE IS ONLY ONE WAY TO DESCRIBE THIS RACE.

>> THE RACE IS AS TIGHT AS THEY COME.

>> THIS RACE IS ABSOLUTELY RAZOR TIGHT.

>> THE LOOK AT OTHER NATIONAL POLLS CONFIRM IT'S RAZOR TIGHT.

>> WE'VE SEEN THE POLLS RAZOR TIGHT.

>> THIS RACE REMAINS RAZOR TIGHT.

>> Stephen: YES, THIS RACE IS RAZOR TIGHT.

THAT MEANS NO MARGIN FOR ERROR OR CORRECT USE OF METAPHOR.

I MEAN IT'S BANANA UP FOR GRABS.

BUT-- FOLKS EVERY PREDICTION OUT THERE, EVERY PREDICTION NEEDS A POOPER.

IN THIS CASE, "NEW YORK TIMES" POLLING JEDI NATE SILVER WHO IN 2008 CORRECTLY PREDICTED 49 OUT OF 50 STATES.

BUT YOU KNOW WHAT THEY SAY, EVEN A STOPPED CLOCK IS RIGHT 98% OF THE TIME.

THE SILVER'S GOT A COMPUTER MODEL THAT USES PETROLEUM BO JUMBO LIKE WEIGHTED POLLING

AVERAGE, TREND LINE ADJUSTMENT AND LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSISMENT BUT IGNORES PROVEN METHODOLOGIES

LIKE FLAG PIN SIZE, HANDSHAKE STRENGTH AND INTENSITY OF DEBATE GLARE.

AND AS OF TONIGHT, FOLKS, SILVER IS PREDICTING THAT OBAMA HAS AN 86.3% CHANCE OF

WINNING RE-ELECTION.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

>> Stephen: YEAH.

I DON'T BUY IT EITHER.

WHERE DOES HE GET OFF PREDICTING SOMETHING OTHER THAN THE AGREED NARRATIVE?

I MEAN WHAT PART OF RAZOR TIGHT DOES HE NOT UNDERSTAND?

(LAUGHTER) THAT JUST MAKES ME SO CRAB CLAW ANGRY.

(LAUGHTER) NOW FOLKS, I AM NOT THE ONLY ONE TARNISHING SILVER'S STERLING REPUTATION.

(LAUGHTER) (APPLAUSE) NO, SO IS JO SQLO STARBUCKS WITH MIKA AND THE MORNING WILLIE.

>> NATE SILVER SAYS THIS IS A 73.6% CHANCE THAT THE PRESIDENT IS GOING TO WIN.

ANYBODY THAT THINKS THAT THIS RACE IS ANYTHING BUT A TOSS UP RIGHT NOW IS SUCH AN

IDEALOGUE THEY SHOULD BE KEPT AWAY FROM TYPEWRITERS BECAUSE THEY'RE JOKES.

>> Stephen: YEAH, SILVER AND HIS MATH ARE JOKES.

BECAUSE MATH HAS A LIBERAL BIAS.

AFTER ALL, MATH IS THE REASON MITT ROMNEY'S TAX PLAN DOESN'T ADD UP.

(LAUGHTER) (APPLAUSE)

>> Stephen: FOLKS, THERE'S ONLY ONE WAY, I'M TELLING YOU, THERE IS ONLY ONE WAY

TO CALL THIS RACE.

AS SCARBOROUGH HIMSELF WROTE, MY GUT TELLS ME THERE ARE TWO LIKELY SCENARIOS.

ONE, PRESIDENT OBAMA WILL SQUEAK OUT A NARROW ELECTORAL COLLEGE VICTORY OR TWO, MITT ROMNEY WILL CARRY

OHIO AND BE SWEPT INTO OFFICE BY A COMFORTABLE MARGIN.

AFTER 20 YEARS IN POLITICS, FIVE ELECTION CYCLES GRINDING IT OUT ON MSNBC, JOE'S GUT IS TELLING HIM

EITHER OBAMA WILL WIN OR ROMNEY WILL WIN.

I MEAN WHERE DOES HE FIND THE COURAGE?

(APPLAUSE) WHEN WE RETURN I WILL BRING THAT KIND OF TAKE NO PRISONER'S BALL SWINGING TO MY GUEST

"THE NEW YORK TIMES"

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