Nate Silver

  • Aired:  01/27/14
  •  | Views: 24,237

FiveThirtyEight Blog's Nate Silver explains his return to sports analysis at ESPN and shares his predictions for the 2014 Super Bowl. (5:12)

WELCOME BACK, EVERYBODY, MYGUEST TONIGHT USES

STATISTICS TO PREDICT SPORTSOUTCOMES, A FANCY WAY OF

SAYING HE'S A BOOKIE.

PLEASE WELCOME NATE SILVER.

WHOOO!

>> NATE, THANKS SO MUCH,HAVE A SEAT, MY MAN.

ALL RIGHT.

NATE, THANKS SO MUCH FORJOINING ME.

WHAT AN HONOR TO HAVE YOUHERE.

>> THANKS FOR COMING BACK TOTHE SHOW.

NOW EVERYBODY KNOWS YOU RANTHE 538 BLOG AT THE "NEW

YORK TIMES".

>> FOR SURE.

>> THAT WAS THE-- THAT WASTHE POLITICAL BLOG TO GO TO

TO FIGURE OUT WHO WILL BETHE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE

UNITED STATES.

START OUT WITH SPORTSSTATISTICS, TO POLITICS, TO

YOU BACK TO SPORTS.

WHY 538 WHEN YOU'RE GOING TOESPN.

IS THAT HOW MANY THERE ARENOW, 538.

>> WHY GO INTO SPORTS.

>> WELL, WE LOVE SPORTS, AGREAT WAY TO TEACH PEOPLE

ABOUT MATH AND STATISTICSBUT MOSTLY IT'S A LOT OF FUN

AND WE'RE SPORTS FANS.

PUT IT LIKE THIS, THERE IS ALOT OF COVERAGE YOU SEE IN

POLITICS THAT'S REALLY JUSTGOSSIP, ABOUT A SERIOUS

SUBJECT.

AND WE WANT TO TAKE A FUNSUBJECT AND BE OVERLY

SERIOUS ABOUT WITH IT ATTIMES.

>> BUT CAN YOU BE, CAN YOUBE TOO SERIOUS ABOUT

FOOTBALL IN AMERICA?

BECAUSE I MEAN WHAT HAPPENSIF WE WEREN'T HOLDING THE

GAME THIS WEEKEND?

WHAT HAPPENS IF WE DIDN'TFIND OUT ABOUT WHICH ANIMAL

WAS GOING TO BE USED TO SELLWHICH BEER?

>> IT'S LIKE REALITY TV FORMEN, BASICALLY.

BUT YOU KNOW, IT'S A BIGCULTURAL THING.

AND I DON'T KNOW, I LIKEFOOTBALL.

>> YOU GOT VERY GOOD AT THAT,YOU KNOW, PREDICTING WHO

WOULD BE WINNING IN BASEBALLBASED ON THE STATISTICS.

CAN YOU DO THE SAME THINGWITH FOOTBALL.

CAN YOU APPLY THE SAMESTATISTICAL ANALYSIS.

>> THE PROBLEM WITH THISGAME THIS YEAR IS THAT BOTH

TEAMS ARE REALLY GOOD.

IN FACT, THIS IS -->> WHAT ARE THE ODDS.

>> WHAT ARE THE NUMBERS.

>> SO THE 8th TIME ACCORDINGTO MY COLLEAGUE, NEIL PAYNE

OF 538, THE 8th TIME WERE THETWO BEST TEAMS HAVE ACTUALLY

MET IN THE SUPER BOWL.

USUALLY SOMEBODY GETS UP SETALONG THE WAY.

IT MAKES MY JOB REALLYTOUGH.

IN POLITICS I'M TRYING TOPOINT TO THE OBVIOUS THING

AND YOU LOOKED REALLY SMARTFOR-- THIS GAME IS-- I'M NOT

SURE I WANT TO PLACE MONEYON IT AT ALL FRANKLY.

>> YOU MEAN HAVE YOUPERCENTAGE, WHO IS GOING TO

WIN.

>> SO THE NUMBERS SAY IT'SGOING TO BE A TIE REALLY, SO

NO ONE WINS.

>> A YEAR AGO I PREDICTEDSEATTLE WIN SUPER BOWL.

I'M GOING TO STICK WITH THATAND SAY I WAS PRESSURED A

YEAR EARLIER.

>> OKAY, ALL RIGHT.

>> BUT IT'S GOING TO BECLOSE.

>> YOU WOULD THINK IT'SGOING TO BE CLOSE.

>> YEAH.

>> NO, YOU WOULD BECAUSE IDON'T ACTUALLY-- I

DON'T-- OKAY.

SO YOU KNOW, WHY DO YOU WANTTO DO TO FOOTBALL WHAT YOU

DID TO POLITICS WHICH IS TORUIN IT WITH ACCURACY?

>> IF YOU GET AS GOOD WITHFOOTBALL THEN YOU ARE WHAT

POLITICS AND IT WON'T BELIKE ON ANY GIVEN SUNDAY A

TEAM COULD WIN.

WILL YOU JUST READ 538 ANDSAY IT'S GOING TO BE SEATTLE,

LET'S GO TO BED.

>> I THINK THE WORLDACTUALLY IS PRETTY

UNPREDICTABLE PLACE.

INCLUDING IN SPORTS.

I MEAN YOU KNOW.

>> BUT YOU NAILED 2008 AND2012.

>> I THINK PEOPLE ESPECIALLYMAYBE IN THE MEDIA AREN'T

VERY GOOD AT UNDERSTANDINGWHAT'S PREDICTABLE AND WHAT

ISN'T.

POLITICS, WE HAVE LIKELITERALLY LIKE HUNDREDS OF

HOLES, THE BATTLE WITH THEHEAD AND ALL THOSE THINGS

WAS KIND OF POINTING OUT THEOBVIOUS.

>> ONE THING YOU GOT UP ON538 ALREADY ABOUT THE GAME

IS YOU HAVE GOT WEATHERSTATS UP THERE.

>> YEAH.

>> A 21% CHANCE THAT IT WILLBE 25 DEGREES OR BELOW, A

31% CHANCE IT WILL BE WIND OF15 MILES PER HOUR OR MORE.

YOU KNOW WE HAVE THENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE,

RIGHT?

>> SO WE WERE USING THEIRDATA AND IF YOU WANT TO GET

TECHNICAL HERE.

>> Stephen: I THINK THAT'SALL WE'RE GOING TO DO HERE.

>> SO UP UNTIL ABOUT 10DAYS.

>> YEAH.

>> UP UNTIL 10 DAYS BEFORETHE EVENT, THEN THESE

LONG-TERM AVERAGES DO ASWELL AS ANYTHING ELSE.

>> RIGHTMENT THEY MIGHT DO15 DAY FORECAST LIKE THE FT

S1 MILLION SUNSCREEN DOESN'TREALLY GIVE YOU ANY EXTRA

ADDED ADVANTAGE BUT NOW YOUACTUALLY HAVE MODELS THAT

LOOK AT THE ACTUAL WEATHERSYSTEMS, CLOUDS AND SO FORTH.

AND ARE MUCH MORE ACCURATENOW THAT WE ARE --

>> OF THE BIG GAME.

>> SO YOU SAID THAT NOT ONLYIS THIS GOING TO BE A CLOSE

GAME, BUT THIS COULD BE SORTOF A BUSH VERSUS GORE GAME.

>> THIS IS A 2000 SUPER BOWL,I THINK POTENTIALLY.

>> DOES THAT MEAN THAT ONETEAM WILL SCORE MORE POINTS

BUT THE SUPREME COURT WILLGIVE THE TROPHY TO THE OTHER

TEAM?

>>(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

>> IT MIGHT BE A REFEREECONTROVERSY, PERHAPS.

>> WITHOUT DO YOU LIKE HAVETHE BEST COMMERCIAL THIS

WEEKEND?

>> YOU KNOW, I DON'T WATCHTHE COMMERCIAL.

I ACTUALLY WATCH IT FOR THEGAME.

>> WELL, NATE, THANK YOU SOMUCH FOR JOINING US.

>> OKAY.

>> Stephen: NATE SILVER,ESPN, 538 BLOG.

CHECK IT OUT.

WE'LL BE RIGHT BACK.

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