Niall Ferguson

  • Aired:  11/07/11
  •  | Views: 23,450

Niall Ferguson explains that the U.S. economy has been the biggest in the world, since 1872, but will be overtaken by China in 2016. (5:34)

WELCOME BACK, EVERYBODY.

MY GUEST TONIGHT, SAYS

WESTERN DOMINANCE WILL END

IN OUR LIFETIME.

THAT'S RIGHT, AMERICA'S

GOING TO BE REPLACED BY A

CHEAP CHINESE KNOCKOFF.

PLEASE WELCOME NIALL

FERGUSON.

CHEEFERS PLAUS

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

HEY, MR. FERGUSON.

THANKS SO MUCH FOR COMING

BACK.

GOOD TO SEE YOU.

>> NICE TO BE BACK.

>> Stephen: YOU HAVE BEEN ON

THE SHOW BEFORE.

>> I HAVE.

>> Stephen: NOW YOU COME

BACK AS A DOOM CRIER.

DON'T YOU?

>> WELL, IN THE SENSE THAT I

THINK WE CAN SHAPE UP AND

PULL OURSELVES OUT OF THE

DEATH SPIRAL, I WOULDN'T SAY

I WAS A DOOM CRIER SSES YES,

YOU ARE.

>> I'M RINGING AT LARM BELL.

>> Stephen: I HAVE SEEN YOU

SPEAK.

YOU THINK WE CAN PULL

OURSELVES OUT OF A DEATH

SPIRAL IN THE WEST BUT YOU

THINK IT'S UNLIKELY THAT WE

WILL.

>> YEAH.

(LAUGHTER)

ABOUT RIGHT.

>> Stephen: ON THAT CHEERY

NEWS LET'S GET TO YOUR BOOK.

NIALL FERGUSON, CIVILIZATION,

THE WEST AND THE REST.

OKAY, LET'S GET DOWN TO NUTS

AND BOLTS.

WHAT'S THE REST AND WHAT'S

THE WEST.

>> THE WEST STARTS, AN 1500

YORK SPANS TO THE NEW WORLD,

AND EXPANDS FURTHER, AND

GETS TO AUSTRALIA.

AND SO AMERICA IS PART OF

THE WEST.

>> Stephen: IT IS.

>> AND THE REST IS

EVERYTHING ELSE, SIMP EL AS

THAT.

>> Stephen: THAT'S IT.

>> YEAH.

>> Stephen: CHINA IS THE

REST.

>> CHINA IS THE REST.

>> Stephen: IS RUSSIA THE

REST.

>> RUSSIA IS INTERESTING

BECAUSE WE THOUGHT IN THE

COLD WAR OF IT AS THE EAST.

>> Stephen: RIGHT.

>> BUT ACTUALLY IT WAS

ANOTHER EUROPEAN EMPIRE THAT

EXPANDED INTO ASIA.

>> Stephen: IT'S KIND OF THE

NORTH.

>> THE NORTH AS WELL.

>> Stephen: YOU KNOW THERE

IS A SOUTH TOO.

YOU WANT TO THROW THAT IN

THE CALCULATION.

>> BRAZIL IS PART OF THAT.

>> Stephen: RIGHT.

>> THAT'S WHY I USE THE WORD

THE REST.

I DON'T SAY THE WEST AND

EAST BECAUSE WE WANT TO

INCLUDE THESE OTHER PLACES

IN THAT NOTION.

SO THE WEST DOMINATES

EVERYBODY ELSE.

THAT IS THE ESSENTIAL POINT.

>> Stephen: IT IS FAIRLY

COMPLICATED.

>> NO, IT IS VERY

STRAIGHTFORWARD.

IT'S VERY STRAIGHTFORWARD.

THE WEST DOMINATES THE REST.

>> Stephen: WHY DO YOU THINK

THE WEST IS FAILING.

>> BECAUSE THE THINGS THAT

MADE THE WEST LEAP AHEAD

ECONOMICALLY AND IN TERMS OF

LIFE EXPECTANCY AND POWER,

WERE SIX INSTITUTIONS THAT

ESSENTIALLY WE MONOPOLIZED

FOR ABOUT 500 YEARS.

>> Stephen: WHAT.

>> COMPETITION, THE

SCIENTIFIC REVOLUTION, THE

RULE OF LAW BASED ON

REPRESENTATIVE GOVERNMENT,

AND PRIVATE PROPERTY RIGHTS,

MODERN MEDICINE, THE SOCIETY

AND THE WORK ETHIC.

WE MONOPOLIZED THOSE

INSTITUTIONS AND IDEAS FOR

ABOUT 500 YEARS BUT WE DON'T

ANY MORE.

BECAUSE OTHER SOCIETIES HAVE

COPIED THEM.

AND MEANWHILE EVENS IF THEY,

IF YOU LIKE, DOWNLOADING OUR

KILLER APPS, WE ARE IN THE

PROCESS OF DELETING THEM AND

THAT'S THE PROBLEM.

>> Stephen: I DIDN'T FOLLOW

ALL OF THAT.

(LAUGHTER)

>> WE CAN DO IT AGAIN.

>> Stephen: THE QUESTION IS,

WHEN, WHEN WILL WE ALL BE

LOCKED IN A FACTORY MAKING

iPADS FOR CHINESE CHILDREN?

>> SO THE YEAR'S ECONOMY IS

THE BIGGEST IN THE WORLD

SINCE 1872.

>> Stephen: NUMBER ONE.

>> AND WILL BE OVERTAKEN,

THE IMF SAYS IT WILL BE

OVERTAKEN BY CHINA IN FIVE

YEARS FROM NOW, 2016.

>> Stephen: WHAT IF, AND I'M

NOT SUGGESTING THIS, WHAT IF

WE ATTACK THEM.

(LAUGHTER)

BECAUSE WE STILL MAKE

WEAPONS, MY FRIEND.

WE STILL MAKE WEAPONS.

WHAT IF WE BLOW THEM UP REAL

GOOD?

>> YEAH.

>> Stephen: I'M NOT SAYING,

OBVIOUSLY I WOULD BE A

MONSTER TO SUGGEST THAT, BUT

IF.

>> THIS THOUGHT DID CROSS

DOUGLAS McARTHUR'S MIND AT

THE TIME OF THE CORE YEN

WAR.

>> Stephen: REALLY.

>> I DOUBT WHEN WILL DO IT

NOW FOR ONE VERY OBVIOUS

REASON, THAT WE OWE THEM

ABOUT $2 TRILLION.

>> Stephen: THAT'S A PERFECT

REASON TO ATTACK THEM.

BECAUSE IT WOULD MAKE-- THEY

MAY COME FOR THEIR MONEY

EVENTUALLY AND SAY YEAH, YOU

AND WHAT ARMY.

>> BUT ARE YOU RIGHT IN THE

SENSE THAT THERE IS LIKELY

TO BE MORE CONFLICT BETWEEN

CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES

AS CHINA OVERTAKES THE U.S.

IN ECONOMIC TERMS.

>> Stephen: SOMETHING THAT

BOTHERS ME ABOUT YOU.

(LAUGHTER)

IS THAT YOU'RE NOT AMERICAN,

OKAY.

YOU'RE A BRIT, OKAY.

AND YOU'RE PASSING JUDGEMENT

ON THE UNITED STATES OF

AMERICA.

PASS ALL THE JUDGEMENT YOU

WANT ON ENGLAND AND SCOTLAND

AND WALES AND SMALL PARTS OF

IRELAND AND EUROPE AND

AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND,

BUS I DON'T LIKE A GUY WITH

THAT KIND OF, PARDON ME,

SPEECH IMPEDIMENT PASSING

JUDGEMENT ON MY COUNTRY.

>> YEAH.

>> Stephen: WHAT DOES A

BRITISH GUY KNOW ABOUT

AMERICA.

>> WE KIND OF INVENTED YOUR

COUNTRY.

[BLEEP] ARE YOU TALKING

ABOUT [BLEEP] ARE YOU

TALKING ABOUT.

>> YOU GREW NEWSPAPER

CHARLESTON, CAROLINA.

>> Stephen: NOT CAROLINA,

SOUTH CAROLINA THAT IS WHAT

YOU KNOW ABOUT AMERICA THERE

ARE TWO OF THEM.

>> IT WAS CAROLINA-- I

KNOW-- I KNOW-- .

>> Stephen: GO AHEAD, COME

ON.

>> IT WAS CAROLINA WHEN WE

FOUNDED IT IN 1670.

>> Stephen: YES, AND WE

KICKED YOUR ASS OUT.

WE MADE THE LORD PROPRIETOR

SAIL OUT HIS BOAT.

>> IT WOULD HAVEN'T EXISTED

IF WE HAVEN'T COME.

IF THE SPANIARDS HAD COME

AND COLONIZED THIS PART OF

PARKER WE WOULD BE HAVING

THIS CONVERSATION IN

SPANISH.

SO YOU DO OWE US SOMETHING.

DON'T YOU.

COME ON.

>> GRACIA.

>> Stephen: NIALL FERGUSON,

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